1. Kate Winslet as Hanna Schmitz in The Reader
Kate Winslet can make a scowl sexy. That's partly physical: her pretty mouth naturally turns down. But it's also because her intelligence as an actress is essentially critical; it gives an erotic taunt and charge to any encounter. Most movie characters have a need to get somewhere else, but Winslet women usually proceed from an enveloping restlessness, a resentment of the status quo. In another December film, Revolutionary Road, her character wants to flee suburbia for Paris, in an attempt to rekindle a happier past. In The Reader, Hanna Schmitz's past was anything but idyllic. Coming of age in the Third Reich, she is part of a generation whose war scars, inflicted or endured, still sting. Now it's 1958, and the carnal, almost feral intensity of a brief affair she has with a teenager (the very impressive David Kross) can't blot out that past. If Hanna is the sum of what she's done, then she is satanic. If she is the repository of Michael's adolescent love for her — and the moviegoer's fascination with her — then she's saved from eternal condemnation. Winslet puts across Hanna's misery and moral blind spots in a performance with very few words, a desperate passion and that laser stare.
2. Viola Davis as Mrs. Muller in Doubt
There's plenty of Acting, heaven knows, in the John Patrick Shanley movie about a nun (Meryl Streep), the principal of a Catholic School in the Bronx in 1964, who suspects a popular priest (Philip Seymour Hoffman) of molesting a young black student. Most of the heavy emoting is done by Streep, whose meanness is pitched at the same near-hysterical level as her giddiness in Mamma Mia! But there's also genuine acting, the kind that opens a window onto a complex, troubled soul, and that's thanks to Davis, in a supporting role as the boy's mother. Drop by careful drop, she pours out her heart, revealing the aspirations and desperation of any parent who'll fight to insure her son has a better life than she has. Davis has said that Shanley impressed on her the deference a lower-middle-class black woman in 1964 was expected to show a nun. That's part of the contained power of this performance: no showboating here, just emotional precision and devastating honesty.
3. Dakota Fanning as Lily Owens in The Secret Life of Bees
Another movie about abused children and nurturing black mother figures in 1964, Gina Prince-Bythewood's version of the Sue Monk Kidd best-seller may cast its characters' miseries in a slightly too-rosy radiance. But that glow helps illuminate some potent star acting from Queen Latifah, Sophie Okonedo, Jennifer Hudson and, above all, Dakota Fanning as a white girl searching for truths about herself and her dead mother. Fanning, 14, was seven when she emerged as a self-possessed little scene-stealer in the Sean Penn I Am Sam. Now she is negotiating early adolescence with the same gravity and poise. She has the eerie ability to lure the moviegoer's eye over to the part of the screen where she is, seemingly doing nothing. (There are few film pleasures as rewarding as watching Fanning listen.) She also has the gift of living inside the character without editorializing about it. She never pushes an emotion; she's like a doctor with a sixth sense for detecting internal ailments. Fanning wills Lily from fictional stereotype into persuasive movie life, and one of the sweet anticipations in moviegoing will be watching her mature into adult roles. Here's hoping the guys of Hollywood provide some good ones for her.
4. Kimberly Rivers Roberts as herself in Trouble the Water
"Katrina, she's a bad chick," observes Kim Rivers, 24, an aspiring rap artist (Black Kold Madina) and unassuming real-life heroine. In August 2005, as the awful hurricane battered New Orleans, Kim and her husband Scott Roberts saved lives by bringing flood victims to the attic of their house in the Ninth Ward. She is also the star, and in a way the director, of this soul-roiling nonfiction film by Carl Deal and Tina Lessin. Just before the storm, Kim had bought a video camera, which she used to document the ravages that nature and an indifferent bureaucracy can wreak. "Me and Scott, we're the last two Mohicans," she says as the street becomes a river, six, eight feet high. "We truly under siege. Nobody left with no valuables, nothin' but our lives." It's because of Kim Rivers that this record of hopelessness and heroism exists. In one of her autobiographical rap songs, she says, "I don't need y'all to tell me I'm amazin', just look at me." Seriously. Just look at the good she did, the person she is, in this movie. Amazing.
5. Angelina Jolie as Fox in Wanted
Jolie certainly has the skill and, even more, the ambition to be a serious actress, as indicated by her bereaved heroines in A Mighty Heart and Changeling. But the contours of her face and body are so improbable and arresting, her stature and sexuality so imposing, that she's simply not designed to play ordinary people. She's much more satisfying as a fantasy or cartoon character. In Timur Bekmambetov's zazzy action film, she plays Fox, a member of Morgan Freeman's gang of supposedly sanctified assassins. The role is a blend of Jolie's previous adventuresses: the CIA killer lady in Mr. and Mrs. Smith crossed with Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, the daredevil pilot from Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow and the witch-goddess of Beowulf. (Oh, and her Tigress in Kung Fu Panda.) Densely tattooed, richly skilled in the automotive and firearm arts, Fox reeks of a take-charge sexiness we'll call feminismo. The actress herself might be a saint from some cinematic fertility cult: Holy Jolie.
6. Heath Ledger as the Joker in The Dark Knight
Ledger's death at 28, six months before his last big movie opened, stoked a morbid want-see. Was his Joker as extravagant and chilling as early reports suggested? Might the performance offer clues to Ledger's demise? Well, it's a wild and meticulous construct: the scourge of Gotham, stalking around like Groucho, talking in a nasal Chicago accent (the film was shot there), propelling every conversation by sticking his face close to that of his listener as if he could take a bite any second. Reviewers evoked Anthony Hopkins' Hannibal Lecter — the same mock-ingratiating tone, same sadistic ingenuity — but this Joker is the bigger, gaudier showman, with a sick kid's need to watch the damage he's caused. His ornate facial scars (possibly self-inflicted) suggest a traumatic past, but unlike Lecter the Joker has no backstory; he can't be read as the sum of what his parents, or a girl, or the Iraq War, did to him. He comes out of nowhere, creates chaos, disappears. Ledger thus had the freedom to invent his own nightmare. What a creepy-terrific job he did... before he, too, vanished.
7. Jean-Claude Van Damme as Jean-Claude Van Damme in JCVD
The Muscles from Brussels: a best actor? An actor, even? In 25 years of martial arts melodramas, he's displayed fast kicks, a surly-seraphic demeanor and an uneasy command of English. But in this low-budget French-language thriller shot in his home town, Van Damme is superb at playing himself, or, as director Mabrouk el Mechri would have it, a semi-realistic version of same: a worn-down ex-star who gets involved in a bank heist with tough guys eager to exploit his residue of celebrity. The wow moment is a six-minute take of Van Damme confessing his sins to the camera: a brave, bravura exhibition of shouting, tears, emotional scab-pulling. Is this wrenching revelation factual? Is it fake? Let's call it fake-tual, and, for now, call Jean Claude Van Damme a bold, gifted actor.
8. Vlad Ivanov as Mr. Bebe in 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
You need to get an illegal abortion in Communist Romania, 1987, you go to a hotel room and wait for the guy who calls himself, with leaden irony, Mr. Bebe (pronounced bay-bay, as in the French word for baby). In the year's best foreign-language film, Bebe is a monster, no question, but not a screamer. His voice is icily controlled; he could issue a death sentence without inflection. Solidly built and sporting a leather jacket, Ivanov suggests the Brando of The Wild One — just extract the humanity and leave in the sociopathic brutality. I know nothing about the actor except that he's made movies in four languages (Romanian, Russian, French and English) and that his name suggests a Russian heritage. In fact, he has some of Vladimir Putin's glacial charisma and sexual threat. I wouldn't care to be in a hotel room with either of them; but I look forward to more Ivanov movies, to see if he's got the same sick radiance, like a walking Chernobyl.
9. Brandon Walters as Nullah in Australia
Baz Luhrmann's swoony historical romance stars Nicole Kidman, hunk de l'année Hugh Jackman and just about every actor who made Australian cinema's coming-of-age party so exciting in the '70s. Yet the focal character of this Gone with the Wizard superproduction is an 11-year-old who'd never made a film before, and who nearly died from leukemia when he was six. As Nullah, the half-aboriginal adopted by Kidman and Jackman, Walters must be strong, winsome, questing, questioning and of course adorable. He doesn't steal scenes, exactly, since they're often built around him; but he magnetizes all eyes and hearts. Goodonya, little mate!
10. Ben Burtt as WALL-E in WALL-E
The lonely robo-boy of Andrew Stanton's fabulous fantasy doesn't say much ("WALL-E," "Eva," "Ta-DA!"), but there's a future-world of humor and emotion in each syllable. Those intonations, and nearly every other sound in the movie — the machines, the weapons, the whole aural environment — are the amazing achievement of Ben Burtt, who for 28 years soundscaped George Lucas films (the light saber in Star Wars, the whipcrack in Raiders of the Lost Ark) before coming to Pixar. WALL-E's voice is Burtt's own, which he stretched, distorted and metallicized on his computer keyboard; he also voiced Mo, the neat-freak droid on the spaceship WALL-E and EVE visit. Hal the cockroach, WALL-E's sole companion on Earth, gets his chirps from "a raccoon, speeded up," and his clicks from the rattling of a cop's handcuffs. (The liquid loveliness of EVE's voice comes from Pixar staffer Elissa Knight.) All these could have been purely computer-generated, but, says Burtt, "The problem with real synthetic voices is that they lack character. You don't get the sense of a soul behind the voice." You do get that with WALL-E, which makes Burtt the Soul Man of 2008.
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未来几年世界经济增长将保持在3.0%水平 受金融危机打击，世界经济、贸易发展进入低迷时期。目前各国政府和央行正在联合携手行动，救助金融市场危机，然而信任和信贷危机并未就此结束。发达经济体将于2009年陷入全面衰退，未来几年世界经济增长将保持在3.0%左右的较低水平，世界贸易量增速也大幅放缓。世界经济需要在深层次上进行结构调整的同时，找到新的增长点。世界经济、贸易复苏将是一个渐进的过程。 ⊙张亚雄、刘宇、张茉楠 一、世界经济、贸易发展进入低迷时期 近几年来世界经济增长的可持续性与上世纪90年代初期相比显得模糊和脆弱，结构调整没有到位使得世界经济没有出现新技术创新带来的新投资热点和新增长点。全球发展失衡加剧、通货膨胀压力加大、以及流动性过剩和金融危机不利于人们对经济长期增长前景的预期。近期看，受金融、房地产和就业三大市场的三重打击，世界经济发展将进入一段低迷时期，以下因素将会影响世界经济能否实现稳定： ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之大宗商品篇
油价寻求新均衡 粮价走势存变数 2009年，美国金融危机不仅逐渐向全球扩散，而且不断冲击实体经济，全球经济增长前景严重低迷，石油需求增长显著放缓，持续多年的全球石油供求脆弱平衡状态有望得到缓解；为了控制油价过度下滑，欧佩克将会推出限产保价政策；随着金融危机的加深、金融创新受到遏制、全球流动性收紧，商品期货市场监管力度加强，特别是百年一遇的华尔街金融惨状将会使投机者对未来金融乃至经济的预期发生彻底改变，因而投机炒作的影响力有可能减弱；影响国际油价的地缘政治风险始终存在。总体来看，国际油价有望从历史高位回落，预计纽约市场（WTI）原油期货年均价格将在每桶60-80美元附近寻求新的均衡价位。预计2009年上半年的粮价走势会持续偏弱，但是下半年价格的走势仍有很大不确定性。 ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之就业篇
就业形势不容乐观 制造业就业冲击大 从动态看，世界经济危机已对我国就业产生不利影响，2009年的就业形势不容乐观。本轮经济扩张的领军行业是制造业，带动就业最多的也是制造业，未来受世界经济危机冲击最大的也是制造业。未来几年，我国制造业将面临大的调整，制造业就业将受到冲击。 2009年面临的就业环境 1、中国经济周期进入减速通道。中国本轮经济周期创下改革开放以来最长的扩张期纪录，1999年我国GDP增长7.6%，达到上轮周期的谷底，从2000-2007年持续保持了8年的扩张势头。2007年是本轮经济周期的峰年，从2007年3季度开始，我国经济已经由持续的扩张转为收缩，GDP增速逐季回落，尽管2008年下半年后中央已连续出台了刺激经济的财政政策和货币政策组合拳，但 ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之产业篇
宏观新政给相关行业带来局部性发展机遇 展望2009年，我国宏观经济将面临经济周期下行和产业结构调整双重影响，大部分行业的发展将受到资金、市场的约束，调整趋势仍将持续，规模以上工业企业的利润增速将进一步下滑。而全球经济的衰退以及人民币的继续小幅升值，也将对我国既有的出口导向型产业结构形成更为严峻的冲击。但是，随着国家刺激内需尤其是鼓励消费政策的不断实施，部分中间投资品行业和消费品行业的发展空间将被有效打开，从而对上游行业形成基础支撑，带动相关行业的稳定发展。 大部分行业仍呈周期性回落趋势 由于我国工业增加值在GDP构成中占50%左右，因此工业行业效益与GDP高度相关，GDP下滑与工业利润增速具有较高的一致性。从全球经济增长看，2009年全球经济将增长3%左右，比2008年下降0.9个百分点。从国内经济增长看，中国经济在经历了8年加速增长之后，从2008年开始步入调整周期，调整时间将在2年以上，其中2009年GDP增长速度将在9%左右。与此相对应，我国大部分行业将不得不面对由宏观经济基本面变化而引发的需求萎缩的市场环境。 ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之金融篇
金融调控目标:保增长、防通缩、控风险 2009年，我国要继续保持经济快速增长、金融平稳运行所面临的困难较多，而通货膨胀压力较2008年明显减轻，甚至存在通货紧缩的可能。经济增长过快下滑和金融风险上升将成为金融调控面临的主要问题，金融调控的目标应由"保增长、控通胀"转变为"保增长、防通缩、控风险"。预计2009年M2同比增速将达14%左右，据此进一步推算人民币贷款全年为3.8万亿左右。预计2009年央行可能继续降息3-4次，每次降息幅度为0.27个百分；存款准备金率也将多次下调，累计下调幅度可达4-5个百分点；人民币对美元升值步伐将较前期明显放慢，2009年全年人民币对美元波动幅度在-1%～1%之间。 ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之财政篇
财政收支低于上年增速明显减缓 受经济增速回落、政策性减收因素的影响，2008年财政收入出现前高后低的走势，财政支出增速创历史新高，进一步向农业、社会保障、公共卫生等经济社会发展薄弱环节倾斜；向受灾地区和群体倾斜；向科技创新和转变经济发展方式倾斜。2009年，为了应对国内外诸多不利因素的挑战，保持经济平稳较快发展，需要实施积极财政政策，充分发挥财政政策在扩大内需、保持经济增长，促进结构调整、转变发展方式和改善保障民生、促进和谐社会建设方面的作用。2009年财政收入将难以保持近年的高增长势头，增幅将明显低于2008年。尽管2009年政府实行积极财政政策，加大政府投资力度，但由于2009年财政收入增幅大幅回落，2009年财政支出增幅将低于2008年。 ( 09-1-5,0 ) -
2009年中国经济十大预测之物价篇
物价进一步走低经济面临通缩压力 2008年：物价走势遭遇剧烈变化 第一，食品价格回落和翘尾因素衰减推动CPI高位回落。在我国计算CPI的商品篮子中，食品所占权重最大，超过30%，远高于居住、衣着、交通通讯、医疗保健等所占比重。因此，CPI对食品价格的变动最为敏感。食品价格自2008年3月份起开始逐月下降，食品价格月度同比涨幅则由2月份的23.3%回落到11月份的5.9%。除食品价格回落外，CPI同比涨幅的快速回落还与翘尾因素的衰减有关。据测算，2008年1月翘尾因素为5.84%，到11月份衰减为1%。在食品价格和翘尾因素的双重作用下，CPI同比涨幅自5月份开始回落，由5月份的7.7%，快速回落到11月份的2.4%。 ( 09-1-5,0 )